Signal or Noise? Understanding Generative Models for Real-World Sensor Time Series

Generative models have changed how machine learning represents complex data distributions, especially in language and vision, yet many real-world systems are observed instead as continuous, high-dimensional, and noisy *sensor time series*. Existing generative modeling of sensor data, however, remains fragmented across modalities, datasets, and task formulations, limiting a systematic understanding of *when, how, and why* generative models succeed or fail in real-world settings. To address this gap, we introduce SensorGen, a large-scale study of sensor-signal generation spanning 14 settings across 4 domains, 7 datasets, and 12 signal modalities. Leveraging SensorGen, we systematically evaluate generative models from five major families and uncover three key findings: (1) flow-matching models provide strong overall performance across most settings; (2) signal properties matter, with demographic covariates improving longitudinal generation and time-frequency modeling improving high-frequency signal generation; and (3) generated signals have practical utility beyond visual realism, with scaling improving generation quality and synthetic data improving downstream performance. Together, SensorGen establishes a broader understanding of design choices, evaluation protocols, and failure modes in real-world sensor data generation.