acceptodds: Which papers will get accepted at ICLR 2027?

Abstract

A prediction market on peer review. Each paper has a market on its decision (accept or reject), priced by researchers who stake $rep, an in app currency, on what they expect. Everyone who signs up receives 1,000 $rep to trade with. Prices are probabilities, and every market settles when the venue publishes its decisions. It is a game made for fun, and has no connection to ICLR, OpenReview or any other organisation. acceptodds is an open source project, open to contributions, at github.com/benedict-armstrong/acceptodds.¹

Join traders from

ETH Zurich
University of Maryland, College Park
Pohang University of Science and Technology
Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani – Pilani Campus
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Amazon
École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne
Harvard University
Los Alamos National Laboratory
Mila
Roche
Technical University of Munich
The Chinese University of Hong Kong
University of California, Irvine
University of Tübingen
Aalto University
Delhi Technological University
ELLIS Institute Tübingen
Indian Institute of Technology Delhi
Industrial University of Santander
INHA University
New York University
University of California, Santa Barbara
University of Pennsylvania
University of Southern California
University of Surrey
Uppsala University
Virginia Tech
West Virginia University

ETH Zurich
University of Maryland, College Park
Pohang University of Science and Technology
Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani – Pilani Campus
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Amazon
École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne
Harvard University
Los Alamos National Laboratory
Mila
Roche
Technical University of Munich
The Chinese University of Hong Kong
University of California, Irvine
University of Tübingen
Aalto University
Delhi Technological University
ELLIS Institute Tübingen
Indian Institute of Technology Delhi
Industrial University of Santander
INHA University
New York University
University of California, Santa Barbara
University of Pennsylvania
University of Southern California
University of Surrey
Uppsala University
Virginia Tech
West Virginia University

ICLR 2027sort:activity acceptance volume newest

[PDF]Mix-Quant: Quantized Prefilling, Precise Decoding for Agentic LLMs

[PDF]GhostMatch: Validation-Free Online Batch Selection for LLM Training via Submodular Gradient Matching

[PDF]Posterior Flow Matching

[PDF]Learning to Communicate: Toward End-to-End Optimization of Multi-Agent Language Systems

[PDF]Cost-Aware Active Learning of Optimal Control Policies on the Switching Set

[PDF]Visual Entity Oriented Diffusion Coding for ImaGene Compression

[PDF]ReplaySSM: Cache SSM Inputs, Not State

[PDF]Time-Series Foundation Models for Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting

[PDF]BIMArena: Benchmarking Domain-Specialized Computer-Use in Professional Building Modeling

[PDF]Sampling and Krylov-Truncation Uncertainty in Quantum Fisher Information Estimation

[PDF]Seeing Ahead: Plug-in World Models for Predictive Reasoning in Frozen VLMs

[PDF]Bayesian-Harness: Probabilistic Knowledge Control for LLM Agents

[PDF]Row Amplitude as an Optimization Mechanism in Transport-Based Learning

[PDF]Contrastive Neural Algorithmic Reasoning for Graph Coloring

[PDF]Selection Is Not Learning: Choosing Model Futures

[PDF]Learning from Runtime Feedback with Failure-Bank Self-Evolution for Vision-Language-Action Models

[PDF]Actions Speak Louder than Answers: Privileged-Context Self-Distillation for VLM Safety

[PDF]Beyond Starry Night: Shortcut-Aware Control-State Planning for Artist-Grounded Text-to-Image Generation

[PDF]Memory-Efficient Subspace Optimization with Residual Correction: From Momentum SGD to Muon

[PDF]GLASS: Global Latent Aggregation with Slot-based Set Decoding for Scalable All-Atom Crystal Generation

[PDF]BLISS: A Dataset and Benchmark for the Buckling of Imperfect Spherical Shells

[PDF]Learning how to Forget: Fine-tuning for Long-Context Sparse Attention

[PDF]Certifying Residual Architectures from Their Primitives: A Sharp Stability Threshold

[PDF]Reward-Aligning Few-Step Flow Models with Integrated Regularizers

[PDF]Simulating Training Spikes of Deep Neural Networks by Layer-wise Random Feature Models

[PDF]CogEEG: Cognition-Guided Hyperbolic Learning for Cross-Subject EEG–Visual Retrieval

[PDF]How Creative Are Large Language Models in Generating Molecules?

[PDF]FROM LOW-RANK TO SKETCH: CHEBYSHEV-GUIDED UNFOLDING FOR EFFICIENT PANSHARPENING

[PDF]SeqDETR: Bridging the Query-Feature Gap in DETR via Deformable State Space Models

[PDF]A Testable Theory of Atomic Features

[PDF]Reinforcement Learning for Search Agents with State-Externalizing Harnesses

[PDF]Audience-Bound Persistent Memory: Authorization Across the Memory Lifecycle

[PDF]Auditing Privacy Risks in LLM-Enhanced Graph Neural Networks

[PDF]SimForge: Agentic Generation of Simulation-Ready Worlds and Demonstrations for Robot Learning

[PDF]How to Crack the Black Box of Emotion Generation? Interpretable Dual-Path Function Vectors for Token-Level Control

[PDF]Demixing Task-Conditioned Shared and Private Neural Subspaces with Temporal Attention

[PDF]Distilled Reasoning Models Bypass Uncorrected Errors in Their Own Chains of Thought

[PDF]Graded Equivalence Certificates for Preference Optimisation

[PDF]Cache-Aware Joint Router Adaptation for Memory-Efficient MoE Inference

[PDF]AnchorGeo: Confidence-Gated Depth Alignment for Weakly Observed Regions in Gaussian Surface Reconstruction

[PDF]BALANCE-DEE: Balancing Event Candidate Space Expansion and False-Positive Correction for Document-Level Event Extraction

[PDF]SAT-LLM: Conversion-Aware Fine-Tuning of Large Language Models for Low-Latency Spiking Deployment

[PDF]MixBench-TS: A Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Benchmark Where Channel Mixing Pays Off

[PDF]Declared Geometry: A Geometric Prior Bottleneck

[PDF]TokenWeave: Consolidating Temporal KV History into Persistent Scene Memory for Video World Models

[PDF]Training Data Redirects Evidence Routes in Audio-Visual Deepfake Detection

[PDF]COME: Complementary Reliability Monitoring with Expert Allocation for Multi-Source-Free Graph Domain Adaptation

[PDF]SCORE: Smoothed Certified Release and the Center-to-Neighborhood Gap in Prompt Repair

[PDF]Next Thoughts Are Distributions: Generative Autoregressive Reasoning in the Latent Space

[PDF]Sample Efficient GRPO via Learning to Reuse Tokens Across Trajectories

¹ If this project is interesting to you, reach out at [email protected].