acceptodds: Which papers will get accepted at ICLR 2027?

Abstract

A prediction market on peer review. Each paper has a market on its decision (accept or reject), priced by researchers who stake $rep, an in app currency, on what they expect. Everyone who signs up receives 1,000 $rep to trade with. Prices are probabilities, and every market settles when the venue publishes its decisions. It is a game made for fun, and has no connection to ICLR, OpenReview or any other organisation. acceptodds is an open source project, open to contributions, at github.com/benedict-armstrong/acceptodds.¹

Join traders from

ETH Zurich
University of Maryland, College Park
Pohang University of Science and Technology
Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani – Pilani Campus
Amazon
École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne
Harvard University
Los Alamos National Laboratory
Mila
Roche
Technical University of Munich
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
University of Tübingen
Aalto University
Delhi Technological University
ELLIS Institute Tübingen
Indian Institute of Technology Delhi
Industrial University of Santander
INHA University
New York University
University of California, Irvine
University of California, Santa Barbara
University of Pennsylvania
University of Southern California
University of Surrey
Uppsala University
Virginia Tech
West Virginia University

ETH Zurich
University of Maryland, College Park
Pohang University of Science and Technology
Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani – Pilani Campus
Amazon
École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne
Harvard University
Los Alamos National Laboratory
Mila
Roche
Technical University of Munich
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
University of Tübingen
Aalto University
Delhi Technological University
ELLIS Institute Tübingen
Indian Institute of Technology Delhi
Industrial University of Santander
INHA University
New York University
University of California, Irvine
University of California, Santa Barbara
University of Pennsylvania
University of Southern California
University of Surrey
Uppsala University
Virginia Tech
West Virginia University

ICLR 2027sort:activity acceptance volume newest

[PDF]Three-Body Scattering for Generative Modeling

[PDF]Making Reconstruction FID Predictive of Diffusion Generation FID

[PDF]ISRO: Inner-Step Refinement Optimization for Retain-Free Unlearning

[PDF]The Price Of Diagonal Multipliers In Neural Network Certificates

[PDF]QESChunker: A Single Objective Unifies Overlapping and Non-Overlapping Chunking for RAG

[PDF]Efficient Best-of-N Policy Evaluation for Inference-Time Alignment

[PDF]Rethinking Demonstration Unlearning in Imitation Learning for Robotics

[PDF]Phase-MoE: A Co-Design to Bound the Expert Explosion in Block Diffusion Language Models

[PDF]Do Reinforcement Learning Controllers Use Live State? A Diagnostic for Metro Operations

[PDF]DarwinX: Evolving Agent Harnesses through Natural Selection

[PDF]PARCEL: Pool-Anchored Resampling with Conditioned Elastic Queries for Efficient Vision-Language Understanding

[PDF]A Common Measure of Communication for Speech Brain-Computer Interfaces

[PDF]Learning from Historical Overlap Errors: Adaptive Pointwise Reweighting for Time Series Forecasting

[PDF]HieraSeek: Learning to Search Visual Hierarchies for Long-Video Reasoning

[PDF]Identifiability of a Shared Continuous Condition from Incompatible Ordinal Standards

[PDF]LabEngine-Chem: Flux-Based Grounding of Symbolic Chemistry in Embodied Worlds

[PDF]WildBioWiki: Benchmarking Knowledge Use in Wildlife Question Answering with Controlled Inputs

[PDF]Scentinel: Smells Like Trouble for Vision-Language Models

[PDF]EXPAND: Extensible Policy Capacity for Unsupervised Skill Discovery

[PDF]When Reward Doesn't See Everything: Modality-Blind Credit Assignment for Simultaneous Speech-To-Speech Translation

[PDF]EQUAL INFORMATION IS NOT ENOUGH: ENCODER RANKINGS DEPEND ON INTERFACE REALIZATION

[PDF]Resolving Homotopy Obstructions in Normalizing Flows via Contractible Covers

[PDF]Probe with Participation Trophies: Random-Reward RL as a Probe of LLM Capability

[PDF]IntExpo: Exploring Diverse Target Intents for Cross-Domain Recommendation

[PDF]Beyond Parameter-Space Conflict: Intrinsic Function-Space Geometry for Physics-Constrained Flow Matching

[PDF]RubricEdit-Bench: Benchmarking Complex Infographic Editing with Fine-Grained Diagnostic Evaluation

[PDF]PPO+: Effective and Efficient Policy Optimization with Self-Valuing Transformers

[PDF]When Can Expert Corrections Be Trusted? Evidence, Limits, and Risk-Controlled Decisions Across Environments

[PDF]The Shadow of a Few Keys: Local Low-Dimensional Structure in Long-Context Attention

[PDF]Spectral Alignment for Early Detection of Loss Explosion in Language Models

[PDF]Solver.EXE: Learning to Solve Expert-level Problems via EXploration and Exploitation at Test-time

[PDF]RESCOM: ACTIVATION RESIDUAL COMPENSATION FOR LARGE LANGUAGE MODEL QUANTIZATION

[PDF]Diagnosing Refusal Failures Under Tool Schemas

[PDF]Stochastic Flow Map for Count Data

[PDF]Retrospective Affective Belief Revision: When New Evidence Changes How LLM Agents Interpret Past Emotions

[PDF]SuperMotion: Source-Preserving Denoising for Text-Driven Human Motion Editing

[PDF]MoAct: Learning Visual Transition Dynamics for Robot Action Generation

[PDF]TokamaCon: An Experiment-Derived Parallel Environment Suite for Tokamak Plasma Control

[PDF]Same Observation, Different Futures: Credit Assignment via Dynamics Modeling

[PDF]Re:Zero: Learning from Failed Trajectories through Verified Behavioral Recomposition

[PDF]EgoExo-VLN: Egocentric-Exocentric Vision-and-Language Navigation in Dynamic Environments

[PDF]Beyond Static Annotation Matching: A Temporal Benchmark for Free-Form Protein Function Prediction

[PDF]Beyond Nominal Width: Comparison-Noise Geometry of Model Validation under Cross-Sectional Dependence

[PDF]WorldPO: Holistic Agentic Learning with Policy Optimization and World Modeling

[PDF]A Safe and Reliable Active Learning Method

[PDF]T²Mem: Learning Test-Time Memory for Robotics

[PDF]Quality Before Quantity: What Governs the Gain from Self-Training in Low-Resource Speech Recognition

[PDF]Spectral Dynamics Beyond the Leading Eigenvector

[PDF]How Narrative Wrapping Affects LLM Refusal: A Cross-Language Benchmark and Defense

[PDF]In-Context Credit Assignment via the Core

¹ If this project is interesting to you, reach out at [email protected].