Online Causal Configuration for Networked Systems via Doubly Robust Steady-State Learning

Large-scale networked systems are increasingly controlled through a small number of global configuration variables while their local controllers remain black-box, adaptive, and mutually interfering. The operator observes only post-burn-in telemetry, so neither independent-unit causal estimators nor immediate-feedback bandits directly apply. We propose CAUSAL-UCB, a causal-optimistic framework for online steady-state configuration. The framework turns raw network operation into a linked pipeline: an exposure interface maps neighborhood interference into an auditable context; measurement-level exploration creates overlap while the target remains the no-exploration steady-state value $\text{Winf}(z;0)$; a clipped doubly robust evaluator converts exploratory logs into value certificates; and an OFU rule selects the next configuration. We prove a unified high-probability deviation bound that decomposes statistical fluctuation, nuisance product error, clipping bias, exposure approximation, cross-configuration mismatch, context shift, and residual dependence. We also give an identification–deployment frontier showing that reliable counterfactual identification and low deployment cost cannot be optimized independently. Controlled semi-realistic replay and real-data-driven semi-synthetic replay on METR-LA and FlockLab validate the resulting benefit–reliability trade-off across regret, optimality gap, ATE error, confidence width, deployment gap, sensitivity, ablation, and frontier visualizations.