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Under review as a conference paper at ICLR 2027

Sharp Certificates for Worst-Case Controlled Cost Sensitivity

Abstract

We study exact identification and finite-sample certification of the worst-case controlled contrast . The access contract is explicit: fresh bounded joint interventions fix every nuisance coordinate, and a valid global Lipschitz constant is supplied externally. For any feasible collection of simultaneous grid-value intervals, McShane–Whitney envelopes give the exact identified interval for ; at zero trace its unavoidable geometric width is . Thresholding its confidence refinement yields family-wise valid sensitive, insensitive, or unresolved reports. For adaptive placement we prove a KL-weighted cap- packing lower bound and a doubling-tree upper bound. On , a converse valid for every -Lipschitz insensitive base, without the lower comparison's strict-slope or interiority assumptions, bounds the packing functional by . The reverse bound, and hence the two-sided comparison, still require an -Lipschitz base and interior contrasts; corrected constants improve by factors 8, 16, and 32 for but remain loose. On the declared synthetic bank, Lipschitz placement remains the strongest equal-cap comparator (1,155 versus 1,037 stagewise decisions at 1,048,576 pairs), and understating causes false-low reports. A retained execution is reported only as an aggregate theorem audit, not a competitive evaluation. The result certifies controlled sensitivity under this oracle contract; it does not learn , identify causal parents, improve a controller, or establish policy safety. \

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