Clipped or Unclipped? Finite-Sample Trade-offs for Averaged SGD under Heavy-Tailed Noise

Gradient clipping is widely used to stabilize training, but it need not improve the statistical accuracy of averaged SGD, even under heavy-tailed noise. We derive a finite-sample comparison of clipped and unclipped Polyak-Ruppert averaged SGD under finite conditional $p$-th moments, $p\ge 2$. Our main result gives explicit accuracy and confidence conditions under which, for $p>2$, the Gaussian term dominates the unclipped deviation bound, so clipping need not improve its leading order. By balancing clipping bias and concentration, we obtain a bound in which the heavy-tail correction depends logarithmically rather than polynomially on the inverse failure probability. At $p=2$, this improves the confidence dependence of the leading bound. We establish sharpness of the unclipped heavy-tail term through an exact one-dimensional quadratic recursion and extend the comparison to projected convex SGD. We also prove concrete costs of clipping: every fixed finite threshold increases asymptotic variance on a scalar Gaussian quadratic, while whole-gradient clipping can shift the limiting point under asymmetric noise.