acceptodds
Under review as a conference paper at ICLR 2027

Identifiability in Deep Evidential Regression: Scalar Boundaries and a Multivariate Gauge

Abstract

Deep Evidential Regression (DER) gives single-pass uncertainty estimates, but different evidential parameters can induce exactly the same Student- predictive distribution while reporting different evidence and epistemic uncertainty. We characterize when architectural restrictions remove this ambiguity. If the evidence strength is shared across inputs, the parameters are identifiable exactly when no two distinct allowed scale functions are positive constant multiples of one another. If both and are represented by affine softplus heads on fixed features, they are jointly identifiable under an open-set density condition unless both heads are constant. For multivariate DER, we decompose the prior scale matrix into a normalized shape, which the predictive law identifies, and a scalar amplitude governed by the same scalar criterion. Experiments distinguish this structural property from finite-sample behavior. The corresponding heads yield more reproducible evidence strengths on CIFAR-rotation and UCI regression tasks, with predictive quality evaluated alongside stability. In a joint-feature QM9 experiment, the gauge-fixed parameterization reduces variation in the epistemic covariance trace relative to coupled and uncoupled Normal-Inverse-Wishart baselines at the final checkpoint. Together, these results show how architectural structure can make evidential parameters uniquely determined and more reproducible in practice.

Then back it, or bet against it.

Related papers

Open the market on this paper to see 7 more related papers.