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Under review as a conference paper at ICLR 2027

When Spatial Blocking Makes Distance Buffering Redundant: Structural Inertness versus Small Effects

Abstract

Spatial blocking and distance buffering both limit dependence between training and test samples, but their marginal roles are rarely separated. We define the buffer effect L as unbuffered minus buffered AUC on identical test units while matching training size and class counts, then vary only whether those units are scattered or contiguous. Removing near-test training samples costs +.0693 AUC for scattered street-view units at r=100 m (95% CI [+.0357,+.1028]; 7/7 cities). Pooling two disjoint corrected So2Sat LCZ42 city sets gives +.0252 at r=200 m ([+.0136,+.0369]; 29/41 cities; p<10^-4). Compact blocking produces two distinct cases: in 28/48 primary cities the realised buffered and unbuffered training multisets are identical, so L_B=0 by construction; among the remaining active cities, mean L_B ranges from -.0012 to +.0004 and each collection-level 90% interval lies inside a prespecified +/-.005 AUC tolerance, although one city exceeds that tolerance. A coordinate-only three-state rule separates provably inert, certified-bounded, and must-measure cases for spatially local learners, with no violations in 1,368 full-pool checks. Redundancy is therefore a property of the realised geometry and training intervention, not of the label "spatial CV."

open until 14 Dec 2026

est. 32% chance this paper gets accepted at ICLR 2027.

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