Counterfactual Generation via Flow Matching: Coupling-Sensitive End-to-End Rates

Counterfactual generation seeks to sample outcomes under a hypothetical intervention or decision using observational data collected under the factual assignment mechanism. We develop a flow-matching approach that combines a sample-split, doubly robust training objective with a learned coupling between observed source outcomes and target outcomes drawn from a fitted conditional outcome model. To enable finite-step generation, we introduce a score-corrected stochastic sampler based on a Gaussian-smoothed interpolation. Our main theoretical contribution is a coupling-sensitive KL bound for constant-step Euler discretization: the error is controlled by moments of the source–target displacement under the chosen coupling, rather than by global uniform regularity of the velocity field, and has near-linear dependence on the ambient dimension. We also establish finite-sample non-parametric guarantees for the learned velocity and score fields when both the conditional outcome model and the source–target coupling are estimated from data. These bounds separate approximation, coupling-replacement, nuisance-estimation, generalization, and Monte Carlo errors and, combined with the sampler analysis, yield an end-to-end guarantee for counterfactual generation. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic image benchmarks support the coupling-dependent theory and show that, at finite discretization budgets, the stochastic sampler can outperform the corresponding deterministic ODE sampler.