ForcingDAS: Unified and Robust Data Assimilation via Diffusion Forcing

Data assimilation (DA) estimates the state of an evolving dynamical system from noisy, partial observations, and is widely used in scientific simulation as well as weather and climate science. In practice, filtering methods rely on frame-to-frame transition models. However, these models accumulate errors over long horizons, and they are further fragile when observations are non-Markovian. At the same time, learned DA methods typically commit to a single regime, either filtering (nowcasting, real-time forecasting) or smoothing (retrospective reanalysis), which splits what should be a shared prior across application-specific pipelines. To address both issues, we introduce **ForcingDAS**, a *unified* and *robust* DA framework. Built on Diffusion Forcing with an independent noise level assigned to each frame, ForcingDAS learns a joint-trajectory prior instead of frame-to-frame transitions. This allows it to capture long-horizon temporal dependencies and reduce error accumulation. In addition, the same trained model spans the full filtering to smoothing spectrum at inference time. Specifically, nowcasting, fixed-lag smoothing, and batch reanalysis are selected through the inference schedule alone, without retraining. We evaluate ForcingDAS on 2D Navier–Stokes vorticity, precipitation nowcasting, and global atmospheric state estimation. Across all settings, a single model is competitive with or outperforms both learned and classical baselines that are specialized for individual regimes.