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Under review as a conference paper at ICLR 2027

When More Outcomes Stop Helping: The Cost of Interference in Network Experiments

Abstract

Network experiments can assign treatment broadly while measuring only outcomes. Under interference, these measurements need not yield mutually compatible causal observations. We formulate this constraint as a budgeted experiment on a labeled exposure-conflict graph. Including the analysis support in the design record preserves the physical experiment's minimax risk. For Direct and Global effects with bounded second moments on bounded-degeneracy networks, we establish the common decomposition . It separates the cost of outcome measurement from a contrast-specific, topology-dependent risk floor. We develop Design-Supported Conflict-Graph Design (DS-CGD): an offline search builds a finite library of compatible supports, and convex mixture optimization allocates probability using pretreatment residual scores. The resulting exact inclusion probabilities yield a design-unbiased generalized-difference estimator. Across evaluated conditions, geometric-mean Direct-effect RMSE is 12% lower than the best matched baseline in each condition on synthetic graphs, and 16% and 22% lower on the two observed network datasets (CAI and ca-GrQc), respectively. The corresponding Global-effect reductions are 40%, 4%, and 11%.

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