acceptodds: Which papers will get accepted at ICLR 2027?

Abstract

A prediction market on peer review. Each paper has a market on its decision (accept or reject), priced by researchers who stake $rep, an in app currency, on what they expect. Everyone who signs up receives 1,000 $rep to trade with. Prices are probabilities, and every market settles when the venue publishes its decisions. It is a game made for fun, and has no connection to ICLR, OpenReview or any other organisation. acceptodds is an open source project, open to contributions, at github.com/benedict-armstrong/acceptodds.¹

Join traders from

ETH Zurich
University of Maryland, College Park
Pohang University of Science and Technology
Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani – Pilani Campus
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Amazon
École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne
Harvard University
Los Alamos National Laboratory
Mila
Roche
Technical University of Munich
The Chinese University of Hong Kong
University of California, Irvine
University of Tübingen
West Virginia University
Aalto University
Delhi Technological University
ELLIS Institute Tübingen
Indian Institute of Technology Delhi
Industrial University of Santander
INHA University
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
New York University
Polytechnique Montréal
University of California, Santa Barbara
University of Pennsylvania
University of Southern California
University of Surrey
Uppsala University
Virginia Tech

ETH Zurich
University of Maryland, College Park
Pohang University of Science and Technology
Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani – Pilani Campus
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Amazon
École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne
Harvard University
Los Alamos National Laboratory
Mila
Roche
Technical University of Munich
The Chinese University of Hong Kong
University of California, Irvine
University of Tübingen
West Virginia University
Aalto University
Delhi Technological University
ELLIS Institute Tübingen
Indian Institute of Technology Delhi
Industrial University of Santander
INHA University
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
New York University
Polytechnique Montréal
University of California, Santa Barbara
University of Pennsylvania
University of Southern California
University of Surrey
Uppsala University
Virginia Tech

ICLR 2027sort:activity acceptance volume newest

[PDF]TRAP: Auditing Target Risk After Prompt-Side Acceptance

[PDF]Distributional Epistemic Robustification for Sequential Portfolio Optimization

[PDF]Debate-Driven Generation: Multimodal Agent Debate for Iterative Text-to-Image Generation

[PDF]InvariFair: One Regularization Parameter Jointly Bounds OOD Risk and Equalized Odds

[PDF]RITR: Reliability-Informed Triage and Constrained Rewriting for Rubric-Based Reinforcement Learning

[PDF]Scalable Post-Nonlinear Causal Discovery via Likelihood-Based Order Learning

[PDF]Moreva: When Does Attention Help Mamba Forecast Event Streams?

[PDF]Initializing Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms with the Optima of Each Objective

[PDF]One-Shot Relational Adaptation of Vision Foundation Models for 3D Correspondence

[PDF]WUIRL: Reconstructing Wildfire Structure Ignition in the Wildland–Urban Interface with Reinforcement Learning

[PDF]Aurora-X: Built for Extreme Time Series Forecasting

[PDF]ArbiGraph: Composing Arbitrary Verifiable Tasks for Agent Evaluation

[PDF]Bench2Robust: Scenario-Controlled Recovery for Tool-Using Agents

[PDF]Continual Graph Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

[PDF]UAL Semantic Guard (USG): Efficiently detecting UAL prompt leakage attacks on LLMs

[PDF]Construct Before You Repair: Surrogate Contexts for Non-Prefix KV Cache Reuse

[PDF]What If? Counterfactual Simulation for Sample-Efficient Visual Reward Learning

[PDF]SCALE-KV: State-Augmented Cross-Scale KV Cache Reuse for Long-Context Inference

[PDF]R-MLLM: Dynamic Model Editing for Robust Multimodal Large Language Model under Limited Data

[PDF]Wide Exploration, Localized Escape: High-Dimensional Branching Dynamics of Multi-Turn Jailbreaks

[PDF]Recognizing Signomial Convexity is Hard

[PDF]COVLM-BENCH: A REAL-WORLD BENCHMARK FOR COOPERATIVE DRIVING QUESTION ANSWERING AND PLANNING

[PDF]Do Context-Reliance Directions Transfer to Hallucination Detection in RAG?

[PDF]Training Recipes Leak Through Behavioral Fingerprints in Text-to-Image Diffusion Models

[PDF]Trait-space Monitoring for Emergent Misalignment during Supervised Finetuning

[PDF]Emergence of Dynamic Similarity in Neural Representations

[PDF]LIFEFORGE: SYNTHETIC DIGITAL LIVES FOR MULTI-SOURCE AGENT MEMORY EVALUATION

[PDF]The Fate of a Failed Training Run: Recovery Dynamics and Replay-Buffer Pathology in Soft Actor-Critic

[PDF]When to Trust the Forecast: Post-hoc Failure Risk Estimation for Time Series Forecasting

[PDF]National-Scale Manure Life-Cycle Optimization with Learned Prices and Optimality Bounds

[PDF]UniDynamic: Unified Surrogate Modeling for PDE and SPDE via Flow Matching

[PDF]Normalization and the Scalar Structure of Dropout

[PDF]GeoR-Bench: Evaluating Geoscience Visual Reasoning

[PDF]Bridging the Decentralized-Execution Gap in Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

[PDF]HEAR: Hierarchical Evidence-Aware Reasoning via Text Conditioning for Multimodal Sentiment Analysis

[PDF]Understanding Cross-Task Transfer in Fine-Tuned Sentence Embeddings

[PDF]Learning What to Practice Next: Experience-Adaptive Self-Evolution for Multi-Turn Empathetic Dialogue

[PDF]Stop on Sight: Omnimodal Standalone Full-Duplex Interaction Supporting Real-Time Visual Interruption

[PDF]The Cost of Hyperparameter Tuning in Online Reinforcement Learning

[PDF]Improving Complex Moiré Removal with Generative Supervision

[PDF]Accelerating Decoding via Autoregressive-to-Parallel Distillation for Architecture-Agnostic Generative Recommendation

[PDF]A statistical measure of trust in generative AI

[PDF]Normalizing Flow Maps

[PDF]Tracking Is Not Permanence: What Video World Models Keep of a Hidden Object

[PDF]Jailbreaking LLM-based Agents via Multimodal Skills

[PDF]Preconditioned Sharpness-Aware Minimization Can Exploit Large Perturbation Radii

[PDF]APIC: Routing Corrections for Neural PDE Rollouts

[PDF]Self-Configuring Hierarchies with Meta- Adaptive Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning for Multi-Agent Cooperative Control

[PDF]Adversarial Error Correction for Visual Autoregressive Generation

[PDF]IDScore: Task-Conditioned Likelihood Correction for Low-Bit QAT

¹ If this project is interesting to you, reach out at [email protected].