The Type Theory of Stationary MDPs: Rare Events and Uncertainty Quantification

The method of types, pioneered by Csiszar (1998), uses combinatorial arguments to approximate the probabilities of empirical measures and has become a standard tool for deriving error rates in hypothesis testing, source coding, and related information-theoretic problems. Although the technique is widely used across machine learning, computer science, and econometrics, rigorous type-theoretic guarantees for stationary Markov decision processes and reinforcement learning remain limited. This paper addresses that gap by developing a method-of-types framework for the empirical pair measure of the state–action process of a stationary Markov decision process. We establish finite-sample type bounds for the state–action process and characterize the associated entropy cost through the conditional Kullback–Leibler divergence relative to the true pair kernel. These results yield large deviation principles for learned MDP dynamics and variational rate functions for plug-in value- and Q-function estimators in offline reinforcement learning. We further develop finite-sample uncertainty-quantification and hypothesis-testing guarantees based on KL uncertainty sets, including applications to pessimistic value and Q-function estimation under model misspecification. Finally, we apply the same framework to universal source coding and obtain explicit coding error exponents for controlled Markov trajectories. Together, these results provide a unified type-theoretic approach to rare-event analysis, uncertainty quantification, offline reinforcement learning, and information-theoretic coding for finite controlled Markov systems.