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Under review as a conference paper at ICLR 2027

When Pairwise Counterfactual Bounds Are Exact: Conflict Certificates and Temporal Compression

Abstract

Pairwise counterfactual bounds can combine incompatible response mechanisms. We characterize when a supplied query attains this relaxation and construct a compact attained representation of the complete sharp function for a structured temporal class. For rational mechanism polytopes, occupied Bellman residuals and a backward no-leakage recursion give an exactness criterion and recover a rational witness, with polynomial bit cost at fixed coordinate dimension. For a structured three-state, binary-successor, same-action model with independent untied time laws and nonnegative rational one-defect terminal costs, original-domain repair, control of nonmetric histories, and first-entry counting bound the entire representation by , where counts exceptional layers. The guarantee transfers to standard exact full-cone pruning. Same-support complete-atom transport gives certified enclosures, with error scaled by terminal range and entrance mass. Coverage and chronological attainment are checked separately. Fixed three-state instances require attained values. A public token-circulation protocol supplies native dynamics for a shared-response completion query. Synthetic comparisons measure a block/generic cold-cost ratio of and changes in optimal route designs; supplied-query batches favor diagnosis or direct search. A growing-state construction establishes NP-hard evaluation and an exponential attained-family boundary.

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