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Under review as a conference paper at ICLR 2027

Replanning Precision for Pareto Identification with Accumulated Evidence

Abstract

How should existing measurements guide the next experiment in Pareto set identification? We distinguish the remaining cost of completing a sufficient certificate from the information needed to exclude incorrect answers. A three-candidate construction reverses their preferred history allocation: concentration completes a rectangular certificate, while balanced history requires less additional Gaussian information cost. We explain this reversal through convexity and symmetry: averaging histories over an information-preserving symmetry cannot increase residual information cost, whereas alternative certificate routes can favor concentration. For fixed routes, we establish complementary bottlenecks and a suffix identity under which frozen progress scores tie across required actions. We implement certificate and information replanning with primal–dual allocation bounds and an anytime-valid Gaussian stopping rule. Across 1,068 synthetic trajectories, certificate replanning has lower observed mean cost on two targeted historical suites; an information planner's initial gain disappears on fresh seeds, and native PSIPS uses fewer capped measurements on cold-start suites. The results separate history value, certificate geometry, and sequential execution as distinct design problems.

open until 14 Dec 2026

est. 32% chance this paper gets accepted at ICLR 2027.

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