SceneFactory-3D: Physical Grounded Counterfactual Simulation for Closed-Loop Traffic Evaluation

Scalable driving simulators typically execute vehicle commands using prescribed behavioral or kinematic rules, overlooking the physics of tire-road interfaces, thereby limiting their ability to capture how adverse road and environmental conditions alter vehicle execution and propagate through traffic. To address this limitation, we present SceneFactory-3D, a GPU-batched, physics-grounded multi-agent driving simulator. Vehicles execute acceleration and steering commands via suspension- and friction-limited forces evaluated at each wheel-contact point. Spatially varying friction, per-world 3D heightfields, gravity, and rigid contact consistently govern wheel motion and chassis collisions. Per-world terrain isolation and GPU batching enable SceneFactory-3D to run matched physical counterfactuals in parallel: traffic scenario setup and vehicle controllers remain fixed while only the road condition changes, enabling the resulting closed-loop effects to be evaluated across parallel worlds. To demonstrate the advantage of the SceneFactory-3D-enabled counterfactual evaluation, we conduct an empirical study on vehicle controllers' sensitivity to road conditions. We study three learned-policy families on 1,024 matched 12-vehicle worlds per condition, and two classical planners on a shared 32-world subset, across 21 friction and grade conditions. When the friction coefficient drops from 1 to 0.18 due to slippery conditions, the vehicle passage rate drops by 18% and driving risk increases by 29%.