The Confidence Shortcut: A Reasoning Failure Mode in Masked Diffusion Models

Chain-of-thought reasoning helps autoregressive models solve complex problems by generating intermediate steps that support later predictions. Masked diffusion models (MDMs) offer a similar opportunity through arbitrary-order generation: they can ideally reveal intermediate results along logical dependencies. In practice, however, standard decoding simply prioritizes high-confidence tokens, which need not align with this dependency order. We identify this discrepancy as the confidence shortcut: models commit with high certainty to plausible tokens while neglecting long-range dependencies. In multi-digit addition, models predict higher-order digits without properly tracking carries through long chains. Controlled pretraining across diverse reasoning tasks confirms that confidence-guided ordering often selects suboptimal sequences, and confidence-aligned training schemes can exacerbate these failures—for example, increasing addition error rates by an order of magnitude. Our findings caution against relying solely on confidence to choose generation orders and against training objectives that reinforce this preference.