Contrastive Linearized Laplace: Loss Geometry, Valid Repairs, and Reliable Cores

While contrastive learning is widely used to learn deterministic representations, it does not inherently provide estimates of uncertainty. Post-hoc uncertainty estimation methods, such as the Linearized Laplace approximation (LLA), offer a way to quantify uncertainty without retraining the encoder. However, we show that directly using the LLA induced distribution over the contrastive embedding does not yield reliable pointwise uncertainty estimates for downstream tasks: embedding variance alone does not reflect whether decisions such as nearest-neighbor retrieval or cluster assignment are stable. To address this limitation, we develop a post-hoc framework based on LLA that propagates encoder uncertainty through the downstream task. We characterize the curvature of contrastive objectives and introduce positive-semidefinite repairs where needed to obtain valid local Gaussian approximations without retraining the encoder. We test the proposed approach in metagenomic binning and image classification tasks. For metagenomic binning, posterior coassignment probabilities support consensus partitions and the selection of reliable cores, leading to improvements over existing baselines. Additional image classification experiments show calibration improvements on standard benchmarks and real histopathology datasets.