Fracast-0: Fractal Weight Sharing for a Time Series Foundation Model with Only 85K Parameters
Abstract
Time series foundation models must preserve multi-domain breadth, probabilistic output, and multiple temporal scales, but parameter count grows when each scale receives a separate representation. We introduce FracCast-0, a probabilistic forecasting foundation model that exploits temporal self-similarity to reuse one operator across scales. A parameter-free detector extracts significant seasonal structure. The encoder applies a shared local block along a geometric dilation ladder with scale conditioning, while the decoder combines context-gathered states with an explicit seasonal future state and reuses a second block along another ladder before emitting nine quantiles. Pretraining across six corpora preserves multi-domain breadth within 85,001 parameters. On 97 GIFT-Eval configurations without per-dataset fine-tuning, FracCast-0 is the smallest of 28 evaluated checkpoints and remains non-dominated in the aggregate parameter-accuracy plane with MASE and WQL . It uses 42.0% fewer parameters than TinyCast, whose MASE and WQL are 4.2% and 3.3% lower. These results support cross-scale weight reuse as a practical route to further time series foundation model compression. The official repository is released at [https://anonymous.4open.science/r/fracast-0](https://anonymous.4open.science/r/fracast-0).
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