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Under review as a conference paper at ICLR 2027

Neural Proximal Causal Inference for Longitudinal Data with Unmeasured Confounding

Abstract

Unmeasured confounders pose a fundamental challenge in estimating causal effects of time-varying treatments from observational data. Proximal Causal Inference (PCI) addresses this through proxy variables, but estimation under PCI requires solving recursively coupled ill-posed integral equations. Existing longitudinal methods make this tractable only through parametric models that cannot capture nonlinear trajectory dynamics. We introduce Neural-PCI, a deep learning estimation framework grounded in established proxy-based identification and, to our knowledge, the first implementable neural method for the full -stage recursion. A joint Maximum Moment Restriction (MMR) formulation enforces all moment conditions through a single closed-form kernel loss, and yields three semi-parametric estimators with complementary robustness properties. We show that stage-wise sequential estimation incurs error growth exponential in the time horizon , while our joint formulation gives additive error aggregation that scales linearly in on average. Experiments on synthetic data and the semi-synthetic MIMIC-III benchmark show that Neural-PCI consistently outperforms parametric PCI, latent variable, and sequential-randomization baselines across horizons.

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