Bootstrap Inference for Riemannian Optimization Problems

We develop an online multiplier bootstrap for manifold-valued parameters estimated by averaging the iterates of Riemannian stochastic approximation. The method runs weighted iterations alongside the original algorithm, with each path using the same observations while updating its own state and intrinsic average. The weighted averages provide uncertainty assessments without a plug-in asymptotic covariance estimator. Under local stability and regularity conditions, we establish bootstrap consistency and show that a fixed number of paths suffices for asymptotically valid Student intervals and intrinsic confidence regions. The theory accommodates samplewise nonsmooth scores and identifies a critical oracle-bias regime in which the estimator’s limiting distribution shifts but the centered bootstrap distribution does not. Applications include spherical means, positive-definite matrix means and medians, and principal-subspace estimation. Simulations show coverage close to nominal in regular settings, and an analysis of North Atlantic storm locations illustrates descriptive online inference for a spherical center.