Static Gradient Attribution Underperforms a Density-Matched Random Mask Within LoRA’s B-Matrix

Parameter-efficient continual learning updates a restricted subset of adapter parameters to incorporate sequential tasks while limiting catastrophic forgetting. Gradient attribution is a common rule for selecting that subset, but it requires an additional backward pass over calibration data. We identify a parameter-pool confound in comparisons between initialization-time gradient masks and unrestricted random masks under standard zero-initialized LoRA ($B=0$): the gradient with respect to $A$ is identically zero ($\partial \mathcal{L}/\partial A=0$), so gradient masks select strictly from the $B$ matrix whereas unrestricted random masks draw from both $A$ and $B$. Such a comparison changes both the selection rule and the candidate parameter pool. Isolating the selection criterion by restricting both approaches to the same parameter pool, we find a negative result: a uniform random mask consistently achieves lower loss-based backward transfer than gradient attribution across seven seeds on Qwen2.5-3B. The effect is concentrated on the medical task, which contributes 80% of the aggregate; code and math move in the same direction, and legal shows no reliable difference. This advantage is consistent with a stability–plasticity trade-off under the tested task sequence, in which random masking slightly reduces single-task fitting. On the two discrete-option tasks (Medical and Legal), the mean accuracy-BWT difference is not statistically distinguishable from zero. The 95% interval extends to $4.80$ percentage points in the gradient mask's favour, so the pre-specified 4-point non-inferiority criterion is not met. On loss-based forgetting, Random-B consistently outperforms the density-matched gradient mask across seven seeds; on accuracy, the evidence remains inconclusive at $n=7$. The attribution pass is therefore not justified by the loss-based forgetting evidence, while its accuracy consequences require a better-powered evaluation.