Rethinking Probability-Based Reinforcement Learning From Posterior Concentration

Verifier-free reinforcement learning with probability-based rewards offers a promising way to train LLMs on general reasoning tasks where external verifiers are unavailable. Yet the reliability of these rewards, especially in long-horizon reasoning, remains underexplored. This work identifies a length-dependent failure mode of probability rewards, which we call the **Posterior Concentration Phenomenon (PCP)**. We show that the probability of a reference answer conditioned on a reasoning trace often collapses to a low-variance interval as the trace becomes lengthy. This phenomenon results in nearly indistinguishable rewards, which, under GRPO-based settings, makes probability-based policy optimization unstable and inefficient. Motivated by this, we propose **Reinforcement Learning with Concentration-aware Posterior Rewards (RLCPR)**, a verifier-free RL framework to explicitly account for PCP for better optimization stability and token efficiency. It has two components: uncertainty-aware data sampling, which reduces concentration-prone rollouts before generation, and concentration-aware regularization, which penalizes unnecessarily long traces when posterior rewards collapse. Extensive experiments show that, alongside higher token efficiency, RLCPR outperforms the state-of-the-art verifier-free RL baseline by up to 4.0% on six of seven benchmarks, including general-domain and mathematical reasoning challenges. Source code will be released upon acceptance.