RAISE: Diagnosing Acquisition Collapse In Costly LLM Signals

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as costly, on-demand components in real systems, but calling them indiscriminately can waste substantial compute, latency, and serving budget. The key deployment question is therefore not only whether an LLM helps on average, but when it is worth calling. We identify a common failure mode, which we call acquisition collapse: an LLM signal can appear useful in aggregate or post hoc, yet still provide too little before-call information to support reliable selective use. We introduce RAISE (Reward-SNR Actionability in Signal Evaluation), a pre-routing diagnostic framework for testing whether a costly signal is truly actionable before committing to a routing strategy. We instantiate RAISE with Structured Hypothesis Embeddings (SHE), a frozen-LLM intent signal for recommendation using one LLM call per user, and evaluate it through controlled, retrospective, and fresh-cohort studies and a prospective pilot whose audit decisions are frozen before independent outcomes are revealed. Across these settings, predictable incremental benefit, not average lift alone, is what determines whether selective LLM calling becomes deployable, while seemingly strong oracle or subgroup gains can disappear under independent evaluation. More broadly, RAISE reframes costly inference as an information-acquisition problem: before paying for an expensive model, tool, sensor, or measurement, first test whether its value is predictable at decision time. This principle motivates cost-aware acquisition in settings ranging from agent tool use and stronger-model consultation to robotic sensing and clinical decision pipelines.